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The Effect of Oil Revenue Uncertainty on Fiscal Policy:Iran Case Study
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Ahmad Emami Meybodi *   , Arash A'zami |
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Abstract: (911 Views) |
| The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of uncertainty in macro economy on government expenditure from Iran. Petroleum income fluctuations has been considered as indicators of uncertainty in macroeconomics. Uncertainty in petroleum income cause uncertain environment in income and therefore government for policy making and yearly budgeting will face with uncertain income environment This paper tries to use time series model during 1971-2008 years and general autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity to measure uncertainty and then examines the impact of uncertainty in petroleum income on government expenditure by using ARDL procedure. The results of estimation of models indicate that uncertainty of petroleum income decrease government expenditure |
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| Keywords: Uncertainity, Government Expenditure, Conditional Heteroskedasticity |
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Full-Text [PDF 279 kb]
(242 Downloads)
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notification: Research |
Subject:
Special
Received: 2014/05/21 | Accepted: 2014/08/27 | Published: 2014/03/21
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