per
Raja University
فصلنامه نظریه های اقتصاد مالی
2476-5724
10
2014-06
2
2
11
30
article
Optimal Monetary Rules and Compensated of Negative Effect from Price Reform of Energy on Distribution of Income
Hossen Samsami
h-samsami@sbu.ac.ir
1
Mohammad Hossen Porkazami
M-Pourkazemi@sbu.ac.ir
2
Fatama Ansari
a.f1220@gmail.com
3
The distribution of renewed income is one of the main targets of governments from economical point of view. Therefore, economists assess financial and monetary politics as tools for distribution of renewed income in short and long term. In current study, optimized monetary politic for compensation of negative effects of change in method of subsidies payment rule has been assessed. The result of this study depicted this fact that increasing the importance of distribution improvement in society leads to decreasing the rate of monetary optimized volume. Moreover if politician purpose is to minimize the social deficit, the rate of monetary optimized volume cannot become negative.
http://tfe.raja.ac.ir/article-1-38-en.pdf
price of energy carriers
Distribution Income
Optimal Control Theory
Optimal Monetary Policy Rules.
per
Raja University
فصلنامه نظریه های اقتصاد مالی
2476-5724
10
2014-06
2
2
31
48
article
Exchange Rate from Equilibrium Career and Efficacy on the Business Cycles in Iran
Nasibeh Zarei
nasibehzarei@yahoo.com
1
Mehdi Khosravy
mehdykhosravy@gmail.com
2
Abdolmajid Jalaeei
jalaee44@gmail.com
3
Since the exchange rate and its misalignment the most important factors affecting macroeconomic variables of each country, business cycles’ fluctuation state would have also impacts on economic policy implementation. In this paper we showed the exchange rate deviation from equilibrium and studied its effect on business cycles in Iran economy. In order to achieve this aim, we used time series data of 1973- 2008 for measuring long-term and short term relationships between exchange rate deviation and business cycles using auto-regressive extensive Lags model (ARDL). We adopted Hodrick-Presscott (HP) filter for computed Business cycle indicator. After confirming long-term relationship, results imply that the exchange rate deviation is effective on business cycles in Iran economy so that an increased exchange rate deviation can cause more fluctuations in business cycles. The coefficient of error correction (ECM) obtained in this model suggested that41percent of imbalance during each period is modulated in business cycle standing to its long-term process
http://tfe.raja.ac.ir/article-1-39-en.pdf
Exchange rate Deviation
Business Cycle
Auto-Regressive Extensive Lags.
per
Raja University
فصلنامه نظریه های اقتصاد مالی
2476-5724
10
2014-06
2
2
49
72
article
Comparison of Monetary & Financial Policies on Iran’s Economy
Mohammad Reza Hosseini
M.hosseini@tci.ir
1
Vejihe Mikaeeli
vmikaeeli@yahoo.com
2
Depending on the level of increasing coefficient on macro-economic variables, especially GDP, monetary & financial policies affects differently. To determine the efficacy of these policies, classic economists suggest using the relationship between different markets being analyzed based on commodity, money and labor markets. In this paper, we tried to analyze and to compare the effect of monetary and financial policies within the framework of commodity, money and labor markets by a collection of simultaneous equations. Logarithmic model was picked and instead of using increasing coefficient analysis, the concept of production elasticity on financial and monetary policy making variables was used. To estimate the equations, 3SLS was used. The research results showed that in the period of 1986-2011, there was a significant relationship between GDP sensitivity on practicing financial and monetary policies in Iran. Production sensitivity on financial policies was higher than production sensitivity on monetary policies, justifying Keynes approach on significant impact of financial policies on economy
http://tfe.raja.ac.ir/article-1-40-en.pdf
Monetary and Financial Policies
Effective
Elasticity GNP
Keynes Approach
3SLS
per
Raja University
فصلنامه نظریه های اقتصاد مالی
2476-5724
10
2014-06
2
2
73
98
article
Convergence Forecasting by Best Selection of VARIMA Parameters: (Case Study: Forecasting the Alpha Company\'s Provincial Market Share of IRAN\'s Butter Market)
Beitollah Akbari Moghadam
akbari.beitollah@gmail.com
1
Reza Yaghoobi Shad
yshadr@gmail.com
2
Forecasting is one of the most attractive and widely research areas. Forecasting is the basis of planning and budgeting in firms. There are many forecasting methods that enterprise firm selected one or more from them, but these methods generally have a weakness. In previous studies, judgmental methods mainly focus on expert judgments, which are waste of resources in some extent and may lead to lower accuracy, while statistical methods in terms of statistical models can achieve better performance, but when the unpredictable events appear, these models are useless and ineffective sometimes. The paper presents how a new forecasting approach combined forecasting to reduce significantly the error resulting from that, by working with an entire assortment at a time instead of producing a forecast individually. The main purpose of this paper is introduction a convergence method of growth rate for all provinces. To identify how apply combined forecasting in which they are operating; In this paper, by incorporating province's market share, two novel paradigms are proposed for forecasting, which may overcome the aforementioned shortcoming. In the first paradigm, the market shares of provinces are extracted, and then their trend are integrated to forecast market shares in subsequent years. Moreover, these paradigms are validated and compared using real data. The empirical results show that our proposed paradigms are useful and feasible for forecasting, and furthermore, the combined model out performs the traditional forecasting by rectifying the Solution of Non-Linear Programming to filling the gap between VARIMA and convergence regression
http://tfe.raja.ac.ir/article-1-41-en.pdf
VARIMA
Combining
Long memory
Multivariate
Nonlinearity
Robustness
Transfer Function
per
Raja University
فصلنامه نظریه های اقتصاد مالی
2476-5724
10
2014-06
2
2
99
120
article
The Reasons of Business Cycles Emergence in Iran and the Strategies for Getting Out of Them
Ebrahim Gorji
egorji@gmail.com
1
Marjan Ghavami
marjanghavami@yahoo.com
2
Yazdan Gudarzi Farahani
yazdan.farahani@gmail.com
3
Since Iran's economy, like many other countries, has experienced the periods of prosperity and recession, paying attention to the casual relationship between macro-economic variables and business cycles can be considerable in policy makings in economic affairs. In this way this article is to study the reasons of business cycles emergence in Iran's economy in the time period of 1350-1390 of Iranian calendar using the approaches of VAR and ECM models. Obtained results are showing the point that the inflation does not maintain the ability to explain the business cycles; on the other words the inflation is not the cause of business cycles but the business cycles cause inflation, the point is approving the business cycles hypothesis in causality from production to prices. Therefore it can be mentioned that a unidirectional causality relationship exists from business cycles towards inflation. Moreover as about the Granger causality between money stock and business cycles in Iran's economy the existence of a bidirectional causality relationship between money stock growth and business cycles has been shown so that both the money stock growth leads to business cycles emergence, besides the business cycles occurring is explaining the money stock changes in the country.
http://tfe.raja.ac.ir/article-1-42-en.pdf
Business Cycles
Monetary Stock
Granger Causality
Vector Auto Regressive (VAR).
per
Raja University
فصلنامه نظریه های اقتصاد مالی
2476-5724
10
2014-06
2
2
121
140
article
The Impacts of Budget Deficit and Inflation on Private Investment in Iran (Using Smooth Transition Regression Model)
Abdollah Mahmoodi
mahmoodi_a2000@yahoo.com.
1
Farouq Azareng
hemen. shno1983@gmail.com.
2
Using smooth transition regression model, this study investigates the relationship between government budget deficit and private investment in Iran. Private investment is a function of inflation and government budget deficit. The annually time series data between 1971 to 2009 are obtained from central bank of Iran. Regarding inflation as transition variable, the study results show that, there is a nonlinear relation between private investment and government budget deficit. The threshold level of inflation as transition variable is 15.8 percent and transition speed is 10. In first threshold regime, inflation does not have a significant impact on private investment, but in second one has a negative significant effect on. The government budget deficit in the first and second regimes has positive and negative significant impacts on private investment, respectively. Also, based on the validation tests, the obtained results are reliable. Finally, model results show that in the period under review the budget deficit in Iran crowds out private investment
http://tfe.raja.ac.ir/article-1-43-en.pdf
Private Investment
Budget Deficit
Threshold Level
Smooth Transition Regression
per
Raja University
فصلنامه نظریه های اقتصاد مالی
2476-5724
10
2014-06
2
2
141
166
article
indices
mohammad kazem naeeni
kazemnaeeni@yahoo.co.uk.
1
an economic indicator is a statistic about an economic activity. economic indicators allow analysis of economic performance and predictions of future performance . one application of economic indictors is the study of business cyclees.economic indicators include various indices,earnings reports, and economic summaries. examples: unemployment rate,quits rate,housing starts,consumer price index (a measure for inflation) ,consumer leverage ratio, industrial production, bankruptcies, gross domestic product, broadband internet penetration ,retail sales, stock market prices, money supply changes. economic indicators can be classified into three categories according to their usual timing in relation to the business cycle: leading indicators,lagging indicators,and coincident indicators. some meaning of indicator are: indicator in arabic is (muasher) that means pointer, in the farsi is (shakhes) that means shower value of a random variables one that indicates, especially:
a.A pointer or an index.
b.An instrument used to monitor the operation or condition of an engine,furnace,electrical network ,reservoir, or other physical system: a meter or gauge.
c. the needle ,dial, or other registering device on such an instrument .
http://tfe.raja.ac.ir/article-1-44-en.pdf
index
economic indictors
pointer
statistics
random variables