Raja University
فصلنامه نظریه های اقتصاد مالی
2476-5724
8
1
2023
4
1
The elasticity of economic growth to the uncertainty of money growth in Iran
5
13
FA
yazdan
naghdi
P.hD in Economics, Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics, West Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
soheila
kaghazian
P.hD in Economics, Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics, West Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.
maryam
lashkarizadeh
P.hD in Economics, Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics, West Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.
This study explores the relationship between uncertainty in money growth and economic growth in Iran from 1974 to 2018. We calculate the uncertainty in money growth with GARCH model. We use ARDL bounds testing approach, for the test the relationship between uncertainty in money growth and economic growth.
The results show that with increasing uncertainty in money growth reduced economic growth in the short and long-term. By comparing in the short and long-term Coefficients, we discover that negatively influence the uncertainty of money growth on economic growth greater than in long- term. Therefore, the elasticity of economic growth to the uncertainty of money growth in the long run is greater than the short run in Iranian economics. So, the hypothesis that there is a negative correlation between uncertainties in money growth on economic growth is confirmed. Therefor policy maker should stabilize money growth to reduce the negative effects of uncertainty in money growth on economic growth.
Key word: uncertainty in money growth, ARDL bounds testing approach, GARCH model
JEL: E23, E51
Raja University
فصلنامه نظریه های اقتصاد مالی
2476-5724
8
1
2023
4
1
A suggested Model for fixed income portfolio to invest in Iran Stock Exchange
14
42
FA
Ghahreman
Abdoli
University of Tehran
masoumeh
zirak
General Department of Economic Affairs and Finance of Hamadan Province
Majid
Etehady
University of Tehran
In most economies, individuals usually invest their money in a portfolio of low-risk stocks and bonds. Designing and creating a portfolio of fixed income due to low risk compared to the portfolio of other assets (especially risk averse investors), has a high power of diversification. Because this portfolio has a general correlation with other assets (such as stocks, etc.).The stimulation of the capital market and the prevention of deep recessions are the result of this model of investment.Tracking the indexes of fixed income securities or assets compared to stock markets was the main issue of this research. This is due to the high diversity of these securities or assets. Therefore, it is an important necessity for the Iran Stock Exchange to find appropriate indicators for designing an optimal portfolio through diversification, that has the ability to analyze based on the boundary between the bold and conservative model. In this study, by finding13 types of fixed income assets(derived from money and capital markets and commensurate with the capacity of the financial sector of the Economy of Iran) led to a proposed model of fixed income portfolio based on the original Markowitz model and through it developed this model. The results showed that index of securities and financial assets with interest rate and fixed income can indicate the total return or price return of such securities and financial assets and the total return indicator in addition to the return resulting from price changes; It also includes the return on earnings (interest and accrued interest rates). Duration portfolio is a measure of the sensitivity of a bond’s price to changes in the yield to maturity and interest rate that it is a Short-term period of one year or less and with one exception that may lean towards a medium-term period. Indexed securities or assets have a maturity of one year or more, a high investment rating, a fixed interest coupon and a minimum nominal value. The application of this model eliminates the limitation of investment funds. It has the advantage of diversification and it is attractive to encourage small investors. Finally, it satisfies the financing of firms at the desired level.
Keywords: financial market, monetary instruments, stocks, sukuk, fixed income portfolio
JEL classification: D81, G19, G21, G30, G32, Z12
Raja University
فصلنامه نظریه های اقتصاد مالی
2476-5724
8
1
2023
4
1
An Investigation of the relationship between business cycles and capital structure choice of the companies listed in Tehran Stock Exchange
43
53
FA
Ahmad
Sadeghi
Shahid Beheshti University
Mohsen
Faal Samarin
Qazvin Islamic Azad University, Qazvin
The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between business cycles and capital structure choice of the companies listed in Tehran Stock Exchange. The study population according to the subject and its application is active companies in the Tehran Stock Exchange. In this study, 95 samples were selected. This study used data from companies listed on Tehran Stock Exchange at the beginning of 2009 until the end of 2015 for one year to collect and test hypotheses have been proposed. In this study, multivariate regression analysis was used to test the hypothesis in panel data method with fixed effects. The results showed that financial leverage has significant relationship with the profitability and firm size. In the growth and decline stage, there is the inverse relationship between profitability and financial leverage and in maturity stage there is directly relationship. Financial leverage has also a significant relationship with the concentrated ownership. In the growth and decline stage, there is the inverse relationship between concentrated ownership and financial leverage and in maturity stage there is directly relationship. But the relationship between financial leverage and asset tangibility is not significant.
Keywords: business cycles, capital structure choice, financial leverage, profitability
JEL Classification: G11,G14,G3
Raja University
فصلنامه نظریه های اقتصاد مالی
2476-5724
8
1
2023
4
1
Investigating the Explanatory Power of Accounting Information using Linear and Nonlinear Models in Predicting Economic Growth
54
78
FA
Vahid
Bekhradi Nasab
P.hD in Accounting, Najaf Abad Branch, Islamic Azad University, Najaf Abad, Iran
Ehsan
Kamali
P.hD in Accounting, Assistant Professor Department of Accounting, Najaf Abad Branch, Islamic Azad University, Najaf Abad, Iran
Khadijeh
Ebrahimi kahrizsangi
Department of Accounting, Najafabad Branch, Islamic Azad University, Najafabad, Iran.
The purpose of this study is to investigate the explanatory power of financial accounting information using linear and nonlinear models in predicting economic growth. The present study compares economic growth forecasts using Fama-Macbeth two-stage regression in the form of linear pattern and neural networks based on genetic algorithm and bird flight algorithm in the form of nonlinear pattern. The statistical population of this research includes all companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange. The period of research is from 2005 to 2019. The research method is based on a linear model based on combined data that predicts the rate of economic growth with the two-stage regression technique of Fama-Macbeth and the approach of total rolling time windows and Arima regression. Then, in a nonlinear model in the form of training data and test data in neural networks based on genetic algorithm and bird flight algorithm, a comparison is made with the linear pattern of two-stage Fama-Macbeth regression. Evidence showed that the Fama-Macbeth two-stage linear regression patterns have a higher explanatory power in predicting economic growth rate than the nonlinear patterns of neural networks based on genetic algorithm and bird flight algorithm and indicate the confirmation of financial accounting information in macro accounting theory. is. The results in specifying the three-factor model of Fama and French to the four-factor model proposed in the present study, increase the opportunity for future investment to the theory of Q and increase the close relationship with the future economy. The management factor positively predicts the future economy and the performance factor negatively predicts the future economy.
Raja University
فصلنامه نظریه های اقتصاد مالی
2476-5724
8
1
2023
4
1
Factors Affecting the Changes in the Value of the National Currency and Its Impact on the Competitiveness Index in the Iranian Economy during (1979-2016)
79
93
FA
vahid
manafi anvar
Phd student in Economic, Payamnoor University of Tehran, Tehran ,Iran
Today, the value of the national currency is not only influenced by the domestic economic policies of each country, but any economic and political events in the international arena will also affect the value of the domestic currency and, consequently, the economy. The core of macroeconomics in a flexible foreign exchange system is the role of the exchange rate in influencing the country's competitiveness in the global market for goods in the country. If the price of goods produced in the country decreases relative to the price of competing goods in the global market, it will increase the competitiveness of the country and vice versa. Countries whose currency revenues are received from industrial exports usually try to control domestic inflation and maintain a nominal exchange rate in order to maintain a balance of payments, so that their competitiveness in the global market can not be distorted. On the other hand, in today's world, increasing the level of living and prosperity of individuals in a country depends on the competitiveness of companies and firms operating in the country. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to investigate changes in the value of the national currency and its impact on the competitiveness index in the Iranian economy during the period of 1979-2016. The estimation of the equations is carried out using Distributed Layer Method (ARDL) using Microfit4.1 software
Raja University
فصلنامه نظریه های اقتصاد مالی
2476-5724
8
1
2023
4
1
The Effect of Audit Quality on Non-Cash Flow Shock Returns
94
110
FA
Samaneh
Ghoohestani
PhD in Accounting, Shiraz University, senior Auditor of the supreme audit count,Shiraz,Iran.(corresponding author).S.ghoohestani88@gmail.com
Hasan
Najafi
Masters in Accounting,Islamic Azad University,Marodasht branch,Auditor of the supreme audit count,Shiraz,Iran
According to the findings of prior researches, the stock return consists of several components which among them is the cash flow shock return. This is despite the fact that a lot of studies have been carried out on stock returns, attention has been rarely paid to cash flow shock return and non-cash flow shock returns. In this regard, considering that audit quality is one of the influencing factors on stock returns, in this research, the effect of audit quality on non-cash flow shock returns has been investigated. For this purpose, data were gathered from a sample of 107 companies listed on Tehran Stock Exchange from 2012 to 2022. In addition, in order to measure audit quality, a mixed multidimensional approach (including auditor expertise in the industry, auditor reputation, auditor tenure, and auditor independence) was used. The research results showed that audit quality has a positive and significant effect on non-cash flow shock returns