1 2476-5724 Raja University 23 Special The Analysis of Iran's Business Cycle of Residential Investment: A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model.)DSGE Aslani Parvaneh 1 12 2013 1 1 11 38 18 12 2013 08 06 2014 Housing Sector, with a considerable share in GDP and employment, is of great importance in Iran's economy. This is the case that due to the noncommercial and non-substitutable nature of this sector as well as the existence of high profit expectations in that, there have been considerable variations in this sector, especially as a result of oil revenue variations. However, Policymakers and planners regard it very important to examine the cycles in the variables related to this sector due to the existence of strong forward and backward linkages in housing sector. Hence, this study tries to examine the way housing sector variables in Iran are influenced by the variations in oil revenues, and for that, time series data spanning the period 1991:1-2007:4 are deployed in a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model including households, firms producing new residential houses, and the production of other economic firms aw well as oil sector. The model is based on some simplify assumptions suitable to Iran's economy characteristics as: 1- Iran as a small economy regarding capital flows; 2- no price stickiness in housing sector. The model is processed through using DYNAR (as a subset of MATLAB software package). The result of simulations in the model showed that all variables in the model response to an oil shock impulse. This implies that Iran's economy is suffering from Dutch Disease. However, it is noteworthy that, although the resulting shocks in housing sector are all strong in the short term, the effect of which will dampen within a period of 8 quarters. This was also justified considering the compatibility of simulated variables' moments in housing sector with the real world. This shows how Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model is able to explain the housing sector variables. To finalize the study and considering the way cycles in economic variables are generated by the increase in commercial goods as well as the effect of a positive oil shock on housing sector prices compared with the price increase in other sectors, "commercial importees management after a positive oil shock", is strongly recommended. 
24 Special Export and Exchange Rate: a Study Using Impulse Response Function in a Panel VAR model Ashrafzadeh Hamidreza Rahmani Mitra Aghajani Zahra Fathi Habibeh 1 12 2013 1 1 39 60 16 12 2013 16 04 2014 In the export promotion strategy one can reach to this idea that devaluation has a positive impact on export, and this can lead to GDP growth. Given the current situation of world economy in which many countries find themselves in the financial crises and U.S. economy go to a recurrent crises and stagnation, and given the especial situation of Iran which is far away from domestic and foreign equilibrium, this idea is gaining attention of policy makers in Iran. But at the same time this has many proponents and opponents, for example, manufacturers is concerned with the inflation of imported raw material and capital equipment which increase the cost of production, while proponents argue that devaluation has positive effects on export and GDP. Also policy makers have other concerns about tuning the export promotion strategy. They most promote export and at the same time must be careful about keeping the internal equilibrium (mild inflation), the equilibrium of internal supply and demand, external balance (the equilibrium of balance of payment) and increasing employment. Therefore they most execute a mixture of monetary, fiscal and exchange rate policy for doing those tasks to reduce domestic absorption, attain balance of payment equilibrium, government budget equilibrium and taming inflation. For this purpose it is necessary to have a large scale econometric model for executing these programs. But with smaller model can attain this goal, as we done in this paper.             Here we pose this question that if devaluation has a positive effect on export and growth using a Panel VAR model to build a dynamic system to construct impulse response functions for panel VAR model and show positive effect of devaluation. Results show that devaluation has a positive impact on export and with reducing government consumption, inflation is reduced and the economy can reach to higher level of private sector investment. 25 Special The Investigation of The Relationship Between Government Revenue and Government Spending: OPEC Members Countries And Non OPEC Ones (A Causality Approach) Mehrara Mohsen Ghamati Fatemeh 1 12 2013 1 1 61 92 11 12 2013 19 04 2014 Governments can increase revenue or decrease spending or use both of these ways to control budget deficit. Sometimes it has been seen that revenue increas(or spending cuts)has affected the other variable and nullified the policy chosen  for controlling  the budget deficit. Therefore the causal relationship between revenues and spending should be measured before any budget policy-making and then according to causality direction the appropriate policy should be chosen. In this research we investigate Granger causal relationship between government spending and government revenue in 77 developing Countries which are divided in two groups: OPEC Members and Non OPEC Ones. Co-integratin approach and error correction model (ECM) has been used for determining the causality direction between these two variables in developing Countries. The results of Granger causality test show that in Non OPEC Members Countries there is uni directional relationship between these two variables and government spending affects the government revenue 26 Special Application of Futures in Hedging of Metal Prices Variation for Domestic Producers Hasanlou Khadijeh Haddadian Hamidreza 1 12 2013 1 1 93 106 05 01 2014 10 05 2014 In the last years considerable variation of metal prices in the world causes extreme changing in the income of domestic producers and consumers of metals especially copper producers or consumers. Thus stabling and countering with variation of copper world prices is so necessary.  One of the usual and applicable ways for that is entering derivatives market. In this article we investigate how much this tool reduce risks of these kinds of companies. We use one to four month COMEX futures contract in the period of 5 years (2008 -2012). We also use London metal exchange (LME) prices for spot prices in the same period. In this study we evaluate efficiency of hedging using futures contracts by one of econometrics models (VAR). Result of this investigation shows that it's possible to reduce the risk 87% at the minimum and 96% at the maximum using this contracts. Finally we estimate optimum hedging rate that proves increasing in maturity of contracts will increase the efficiency of model. So 4-month contracts are the most efficient  and 1-month contracts the least efficient 27 Special Measuring Core Inflation in Iran Tashkini Ahmad Tashkini Ghasem 1 12 2013 1 1 107 126 11 12 2013 19 04 2014 This study tries to measure core inflation in Iran's economy, using SVAR method, spanning the period 1973-2007. The necessity of knowing about core inflation is that it increases signals to likely noises (shocks). Through using coring inflation criteria in policy making, monetary policies become more effective, as policymakers just react to fluctuations in measured inflation, ignoring temporary noises. Core inflation criteria is an appropriate index for both the measurement of current and future inflation trends, and an applicable target for monetary policy. In this study, core inflation is considered as "a component of measured inflation with no effect on real output either in the long run or short run". In an attempt to measure core inflation in Iran, three variables as oil price, gross national product, and consumer price index are deployed in a Structural Vector Auto Regressive (SVAR) model, imposing some restrictions to make the model compliant with the structure of Iran's economy. 28 Special The Relationship Between Inflation, Economic Growth and Liquidity Growth by Using VARMA-MGARCH Model Ebrahimi Mohsen Efati Baran Farshid Moftakhar Daryaienejad Kobra 1 12 2013 1 1 127 148 03 02 2014 20 06 2014 Macroeconomic variables such as inflation, economic growth and liquidity ,due to its importance for developing countries ,have high sensitivity and the volatility of key variables can make much more difficulty for these countries.In addition, knowledge of the future state variables and how they influence each other may have significant role in formulating economic policies. There are many models for explaining the volatility transmission between macroeconomic variables that we describe the communication and effectiveness between three variables; inflation, economic growth and liquidity growth, by using Vector Auto Regression Moving Average(VARMA)andMultivariate Generalized  Auto Regressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity(MGARCH) model. The result of our article ,obtained from Stata12 and Splus software, show optimal model, during the years 1353 to 1388, is VARMA-MGARCH(1,1) and in this model liquidity and economic growth interact with each other and both variables directly influence the inflation 29 Special The Consequence of National Currency Redenomination: Would Dropping Zeroes From Domestic Currency Result in Inflation? Noferesti Mohammad Norouzi Zahra 1 12 2013 1 1 149 168 01 03 2014 06 06 2014 It is due to considerable devaluation  of  Rial in recent years that special attention is given to the redenomination of national currency. Although the devaluation is to such an extent that redenomination is unavoidable, yet mainly due to apprehension about the possible incidence of inflation, there is a hesitation and procrastination about it. This article examines the currency redenomination policy from the view point of  its possible inflationary impact. In doing so, the focus is placed on the money supply, after such a policy is implemented. If  redenomination  together with issuing larger denominated bank notes increase the money demand for currency,  money multiplies will be reduced and hence the money supply. In order to investigate such a consequence, a theoretically based demand function for currency is specified and estimated by using Cointegration method and time-series annual data for the period 1338-1391. Estimation result indicate that the issuance of larger denominated bank notes and coins will increase the amount of notes and coins demand by the public. This will increase the ratio of  bank notes to bank deposits and hence will reduce  the money multiplier which is of  an deflationary nature. In order to asses the inflationary aspect of redenomination polices in countries that carried out such a policy, a model based on quantity theory of money is derived and  estimate for some of the countries that the needed data were available . The results indicate that currency redenomination  not only didn't bring about inflation, but in some countries resulted in the reduction of the rate of inflation.